While last year’s winter was abnormally cold and snowy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sent out a report stating most of Illinois will be expected to have a drier winter this year.

There is a less than 33 percent chance regions in the Midwest, including Charleston, will experience a dry winter with below average precipitation, according to a report on the NOAA website.

The report also stated temperatures in Illinois, along with other areas in the Midwest, cannot be predicted because there is a lack of climatic signals to warrant one.

The local area could have an equal chance for above, near or below average temperatures.

Cameron Craig, an Eastern geography professor, said right now, the Charleston area is at a climatological normal meaning, on average, this region is seeing normal temperatures and precipitation. 

He added during the summer months, this winter was expected to be just as cold as last year, if not worse.

Craig said the polar vortex, which essentially occurs when the Jetstream is weak enough for cold air to simmer down south, came back down during the summer months providing cooler days relatively.

Lately, the Jetstream has been strong causing warm weather in the Charleston area, especially this week.

For the past couple of days, Charleston has seen above average weather this late in the fall season.

The report added it is only a season outlook prediction and several variables affect the severity of the winter.

“This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations,” the report stated. “Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.”

Craig agreed. More accurate predictions of the winter months will be available in late November.

Data in late November will better forecast the following winter.

Last winter, Charleston saw some of the most severe weather with record-breaking lows and large amounts of snowfall.

This even led to Eastern’s first school cancelation in years.

Jarad Jarmon can be reached at 581-2812 or jsjarmon@eiu.edu.