Out of Bounds
The odds favor Eastern football.
But still, the Panthers are sitting on a bubble in terms of a bid to the Football Championship Subdivision playoffs.
A win against Samford this Saturday would give the Panthers an 8-3 record and makes their case for a third-straight playoff berth even stronger. Seven of the eight automatic berths given to league champions have already been claimed.
The Colonial Conference champion will be determined this weekend when a pair of 8-2 teams, Massachusetts and Richmond, meet. Both those teams are ranked nationally in the top 10.
That leaves the Panthers, 21st in the Sports Network Poll and 20th in the FCS Coaches Poll, trying to fill one of the eight at-large berths.
Based off those two polls, nine teams are eligible for the postseason ahead of the Panthers.
North Dakota State, No. 1 in the Sports Network and No. 2 in the Coaches Poll, isn’t eligible because it is making the transition from Division II. Yale, 11th in both polls, competes in the Ivy League, which doesn’t allow its teams to play in the postseason. Grambling State, of the Southwestern Athletic Conference and No. 19 in the Sports Network Poll, doesn’t participate in the playoffs because of its rivalry game against Southern University two days after Thanksgiving.
No. 5 Southern Illinois (9-1) and No. 6 Appalachian State (8-2) are locks for two of the berths – even if they lose this Saturday.
The loser of the Massachusetts-Richmond game will gain an automatic berth because of the competitive Colonial. Five teams could possibly earn playoff berths this year out of that league alone.
Delaware (8-2), also out of the Colonial, should get in even if the Blue Hens lose to Villanova this weekend.
Both of Delaware’s losses have been to New Hampshire and Richmond – both fixtures in the Top 25 this season.
This essentially leaves four spots for six teams.
Panther fans should be paying attention to how Eastern Washington (7-3), New Hampshire (6-4) and Eastern Washington (7-3) fare this weekend. Eastern Washington hosts Weber State this weekend in a game EWU should win. The Eagles lone loss that looks bad is a Sept. 29 loss to Portland State (2-8). EWU’s other two losses were by one point to BYU and Big Sky champion Montana.
New Hampshire is a spot ahead of the Panthers in the Sports Network Poll, and three of its losses have come to Massachusetts, Richmond and James Madison. The Wildcats lone bad loss came to Northeastern.
Still, with a win against Maine this Saturday, New Hampshire has a strong case. They have a strong football history, with last year’s Walter Payton Award winner in quarterback Ricky Santos and a win against Marshall this year.
Plus, the Wildcats play in the toughest FCS conference in the nation in the Colonial.
James Madison, also out of the Colonial, has a better chance to make the playoffs than New Hampshire because the Dukes have beaten UNH this year. If James Madison beats Towson on Saturday, the Dukes should qualify.
Youngstown State finished the regular season last weekend with a 7-4 record. Two of its losses came to Southern Illinois and Gateway Conference champion Northern Iowa. The Penguins also lost to Ohio State, and their lone bad loss came against Illinois State, which finished 4-7.
Georgia Southern is 7-3 heading into its game at Colorado State this weekend, a game the Eagles will most likely lose. But still, at 7-4, Georgia Southern has wins this year against Appalachian State and Southern Conference champion Wofford.
And finally, there are the Panthers.
They haven’t lost since Eastern Kentucky beat them 28-21 on Oct. 6. EKU already has clinched a share of the Ohio Valley Conference and the OVC’s automatic berth into the playoffs. That loss doesn’t look as bad as it could have if the Colonels would have struggled the rest of the year. The loss to Purdue shouldn’t play a factor at all.
However, the early-season loss to Illinois State, which was ranked when the two teams met, looks bad, considering how the Redbirds finished.
The Panthers won’t be playing at home if they make the playoffs, like they’ve done in the last two years. The athletic department decided not to put in a bid to host a first-round playoff game after the Panthers loss to EKU – which might not be a bad move when considering Eastern is 2-2 at home and 5-1 on the road this year.
Plus, add on the fact that since the FCS playoff field expanded to 16 teams in 1986, no OVC school with at least eight Division I wins has been left out of the playoffs.
But all this speculation and prognosticating doesn’t do a bit of good if Eastern loses to Samford.
If that happens, Eastern’s bubble will have burst long before Sunday’s selection show on ESPNU at 2:30 p.m.